Daily Summary of Investment Bank/Institution Views (2025-12-30)

Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank/Institutional Viewpoints Summary

Overseas

UBS Group: Raised gold price forecast, expected to reach $5,000 next year

UBS Group raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to USD 5000 per ounce on Monday and projected that the gold price would retreat to USD 4800 per ounce by the end of 2026, higher than the previous forecast of USD 4300 per ounce. The bank expects that gold demand will steadily increase throughout 2026, supported by low real yields, persistent concerns about the global economy, and domestic policy uncertainties in the United States (particularly those related to midterm elections and rising fiscal pressures). UBS stated in the report: ‘If political or financial risks escalate, the gold price could rise to USD 5400 per ounce (previously forecast at USD 4900 per ounce).’

HDFC Securities: Gold and silver are in overbought territory, with prices likely to face further correction pressure

During the highly volatile trading on Monday, spot silver’s decline expanded to 8%, and spot gold fell back below $4,400 per ounce. Saumil Gandhi, senior commodity analyst at HDFC Securities, said, “Gold and silver prices retreated from record highs on Monday as traders took profits after a record-breaking rally.” Gandhi further noted that both gold and silver are in overbought territory on higher timeframes, which is a cautious signal indicating the need for a healthy pullback before the uptrend continues. He stated, “We expect that as investors adjust and rebalance their positions towards the end of the month and year, gold prices will face further correction pressure.”

Mizuho: Crude oil trading is based on the expectation that Russia and Ukraine will not reach a ceasefire agreement in the short term

Crude oil futures rebounded partially from Friday’s declines on Monday, as the weekend meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy failed to resolve some key issues. Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger stated, “Crude oil trading is based on the expectation that a ceasefire agreement within the Russia-Ukraine peace process will not be reached in the short term. There have been many discussions but no agreement has been reached. The ongoing conflict will put pressure on Russia’s crude oil production. Sanctions will test Russia’s ability to deliver crude oil to international customers, while Ukraine’s attacks on refineries will challenge Russia’s ability to operate refineries at high utilization rates.”

Domestic

CITIC Securities: The lithium iron phosphate industry is expected to see a cyclical turning point in profitability

According to a research report by CITIC Securities, the profitability of the lithium iron phosphate industry is expected to reach a cyclical turning point. On the demand side, further penetration of lithium iron batteries in the power sector and the robust growth of energy storage are driving rapid demand expansion. We estimate that global shipments of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials will reach 5.25 million tons by 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 36%. On the supply side, we expect limited growth by 2026, with overall capacity utilization rates likely to improve further, while high-end products remain relatively scarce. Currently, profitability in the lithium iron phosphate sector is at a cyclical low. As supply-demand dynamics improve, there is potential for recovery. Further clarity on product premiumization and overseas expansion trends could bring excess profits to leading companies. We strongly recommend top-tier enterprises within the lithium iron phosphate industry.

CITIC Securities: Commercial aerospace maintains high growth momentum; graphite fiber presents opportunities

CITIC Securities’ research report states that commercial aerospace is experiencing high growth driven by policy, technology, and market factors. Increased demand for space computing power has raised requirements for lightweight rocket and satellite structures, as well as carbon fiber materials suitable for special application environments. Graphite fibers, known for their high-temperature resistance, high strength-to-weight ratio, and low thermal expansion coefficient, are expected to see an increase in adoption rates. We anticipate that companies involved in graphite fibers will benefit significantly from growing downstream demand and localization trends.

CITIC Securities: The collagen industry remains in its growth phase; recommend monitoring three types of enterprises

CITIC Securities points out that advancements in natural and recombinant collagen technologies and processes continue, expanding application scenarios. The increasing approval of collagen products will enrich indications, improve pricing tiers, and drive consumer base expansion and penetration rate growth. Although the number of registered certificates for natural and recombinant collagen products is rising, the market is far from saturated, allowing all enterprises to share in the industry’s growth and establish niches in the medical aesthetics market. Recommendations include: 1) Companies whose recombinant collagen freeze-dried fiber registration certificates are finalized, with anticipated market entry in the first half of 2026; meanwhile, recombinant collagen solutions and gels may receive approval in 2026, potentially becoming a second growth curve for these businesses; 2) Enterprises entering the natural collagen sector through acquisitions, with steady progress in the development and clinical trials of Class III medical aesthetic devices, which could become new forces in the existing portfolio of medical aesthetic biomaterials; 3) Companies leveraging strong drug R&D and regulatory expertise to simultaneously develop both natural and recombinant collagen through partnerships and internal R&D.

CICC: Now is the time to invest in high-quality Chinese brokerages

According to a research report by CICC, we believe that the growth of China’s securities industry benefits from China’s economic development and capital market reforms. Leading Chinese brokerages are expected to accelerate their progress towards becoming world-class investment banks during the ’15th Five-Year Plan’ period. While better serving China’s modernization, they will also enhance their business scale, professional capabilities, and profitability. Their long-term investment value is expected to become more prominent. Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate: 1) The industry’s fundamentals will continue to show relatively high growth momentum, with an estimated profit increase of 12% year-over-year. However, revenue growth across different business lines may vary, with fee-based businesses outperforming investment, primary market businesses outperforming secondary markets, product-related businesses outperforming trading, and institutional trading outperforming retail trading; 2) Policy support will act as an upward catalyst, with attention on the normalization of IPO issuance, the expansion of financial product tools, potential easing of capital leverage, and the pace of long-term capital entering the market; 3) Institutional holdings remain underweight, and sector valuations are still low, which we believe provides sufficient downside protection for the sector.

CICC: The profitability of the wind power equipment supply chain is expected to show comprehensive improvement by 2026

According to a research report by CICC, the outlook for domestic and overseas wind power demand in 2026 is optimistic, thanks to rising prices for onshore wind turbines in China, accelerated industry exports with broader expansion, and potential growth in offshore wind power domestically. This is expected to lead to a more comprehensive improvement in profitability across the supply chain. CICC forecasts that new installed wind power capacity in China could reach 130–140 GW in 2026, continuing to grow from a high base of 120–130 GW in 2025, primarily driven by onshore wind power. Offshore wind power is projected to add 10–12 GW in 2026, showing relatively rapid growth compared to 7–9 GW in 2025, although the industry still needs to work on improving overall activity levels. Overseas markets are expected to see diversified demand for onshore wind power in emerging markets, while the high level of activity in overseas offshore wind power construction is likely to be sustained over the next two years.