October 15, 2024

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2025 commercial real estate outlook

2025 commercial real estate outlook
  • Robyn Gibbard, “United States Economic Forecast: Q2 2024,” Deloitte Insights, June 20, 2024.


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  • Dr. Alexander Boersch and Dr. Pauliina Sandqvist, “Eurozone economic outlook, April 2024,” Deloitte Insights, April 10, 2024.


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  • Dr. Rumki Majumdar, “India economic outlook, April 2024,” Deloitte Insights, April 26, 2024.


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  • Ira Kalish, “Global economic outlook, January 2024,” Deloitte Insights, Jan. 25, 2024.


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  • Daniel Cunningham, “ECB rates cut receives measured welcome by industry,” PERE, June 7, 2024.


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  • Eshe Nelson, “Bank of England cuts interest rates for the first time since 2020,” The New York Times, Aug. 1, 2024.


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  • Jeanna Smialek, “Fed opens door to September rate cut if inflation stays cool,” The New York Times, July 31, 2024.


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  • Ibid.


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  • Gibbard, “United States Economic Forecast Q2 2024,” Deloitte Insights, June 20, 2024.


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  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Federal funds effective rate,” retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Sept. 3, 2024.


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  • Jeffrey J. Smith, Kathy Feucht, Renea Burns, and Tim Coy, “2024 commercial real estate outlook: Finding terra firma,” Deloitte Insights, Sept. 21, 2023.


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  • The New York Times, “International elections 2024: What you need to know,” March 21, 2024.


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  • Carol Ryan, “Property’s waiting game is getting harder,” The Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2024.


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  • Alexis Martin, “Wave of Property-Loan Maturities Amplified by Extensions,” MSCI Real Capital Analytics, March 26, 2024.


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  • Ibid.


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  • CBRE, “The debt funding gap for Asia-Pacific real estate,” May 28, 2024.


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  • Matthew Toma, “The European real estate maturity wall is a challenge that can be addressed with legal finance,” Burford Capital, Dec. 5, 2023.


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  • CBRE, “Some distress will emerge amid wall of loan maturities,” May 8, 2024.


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  • MSCI RCA, “RCA CPPI Global,” Q2 2024.


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  • Represents the US dollar value change on rolling 12-month transaction combined totals across EMEA, Asia Pacific, and North America.


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  • MSCI RCA, “Global Capital Trends, Q2,” Aug. 8, 2024.


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  • Will Robson, Niel Harmse, Fritz Louw, Willem Vlaming, “Real assets in focus: Are we nearly there yet?,” MSCI, May 15, 2024.


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  • Raghunandan Gurumurthy, “Reshoring in North America: Strategy for manufacturing excellence,” Forbes, Aug. 7, 2024.


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  • CBRE, “Closer: Nearshoring has inspired a boom in Mexico’s industrial real estate,” May 7, 2024.


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  • Noi Mahoney, “Borderlands Mexico: Investment surges in Mexico as companies shift supply chains, plan new factories,” FreightWaves, March 31, 2024.


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  • Inbound Logistics, “Nearshoring: Partners lead the way in Mexico,” June 2024.


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  • Mark Heschmeyer, “Commercial properties get early boost from efforts to revive US semiconductor industry,” CoStar News, June 6, 2024.


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  • Ibid.


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  • Kimberly Steele, “Growth of AI creates unprecedented demand for global data centers,” JLL, Jan. 31, 2024.


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  • Eren Çam, Zoe Hungerford, Niklas Schoch, Francys Pinto Miranda, Carlos David Yáñez de León, “Electricity 2024: Analysis and forecast to 2026,” International Energy Agency, January 2024.


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  • Camilla Hodgson, “US tech groups’ water consumption soars in ‘data centre alley’,” Financial Times, Aug. 18, 2024.


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  • Patrick Sisson, “AI frenzy complicates efforts to keep power-hungry data sites green,” The New York Times, March 19, 2024.


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  • PR Newswire, “Merlin Properties and Edged expand global reach of new Barcelona data center with connections to Barcelona Cable Landing Station, EXA, and Axent,” Jan. 10, 2024.


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  • Patricia Buckley and Tim Coy, “On the watchlist: The office sector in commercial real estate,” Deloitte Insights, April 30, 2024.


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  • Ibid.


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  • Deloitte analysis of MSCI Real Capital Analytics Global Volumes Standardized Download, accessed July 15, 2024.


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  • Ibid.


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  • Ibid.


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  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics, “Global Cross-Border Investment Compendium,” February 23, 2024.


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  • Ibid.


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  • Deloitte Center for Financial Services and Deloitte M&A Research Services analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data, accessed May 2024. Includes only transactions where the target of the transaction is a real estate entity.


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  • Ibid.


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  • Public organizations include real estate investment trusts (REIT) and real estate operating companies.


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  • Institutional organizations are not known to be either public or private but are generally categorized as financially sophisticated investors that make investments often held in large portfolios. Institutional organizations surveyed include banks, insurance companies, finance and investment management companies, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and open-ended funds.


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  • Private organizations include real estate private equity companies and all other non-REIT owners and investors.


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  • Deloitte analysis of MSCI Real Capital Analytics US CPPI Index, February 2024.


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  • Justin Worland, “Commercial real estate is in trouble. Climate change is part of the problem,” TIME, Aug. 17, 2023.


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  • Mike Phillips, “Office owners: Here’s how to make money from being green,” Bisnow Media, Sept. 3, 2021.


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  • European Commission, “Energy performance of buildings directive,” accessed Sept. 10, 2024.


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  • Marla Thalheimer, ”Policy breakdown: What new federal BPS and California joining BPS coalition mean for the building industry,” Institute for Market Transformation, Dec. 16, 2022.


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  • National Renewable Energy Laboratory, ADL Ventures, and New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, “Unlocking the value of deep energy retrofits,” Dec. 2023.


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  • Kamya Miglani, “Retrofitting buildings for a net-zero future,” JLL, March 3, 2023.


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  • Ibid.


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  • Chiara Delmastro and Olivia Chen, “Buildings,” International Energy Agency, July 11, 2023.


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  • Institute for Market Transformation, “Map: National BPS Coalition participating jurisdictions,” accessed Sept. 10, 2023.


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  • Deloitte, “ESG real estate insights,” accessed Sept. 10, 2023.


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  • Savills Research update as of September 2024 on data originally found in: Georgia Ferris, Mike Barnes, and Jess Edgley, “Spotlight: European office obsolescence,” Savills, Dec. 12, 2022.


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  • Miglani, “Retrofitting buildings for a net-zero future.”


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  • Chris Hudgins, “US REIT green bond issuance at 6-year low in 2023,” S&P Global Market Intelligence, Feb. 20, 2024.


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  • JLL, “Real estate transparency critical for decarbonization,” accessed Sept. 10, 2024.


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  • Christopher Walker, “Impact investing gains momentum with real estate investors,” Impact Investor, Jan. 29, 2024.


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  • Harrison Connery, “CalSTRS’ carbon tracking highlights decarbonization challenges,” PERE, July 30, 2024.


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  • Amy Frearson, “Digital twins are ‘big driver’ toward net-zero cities say experts,” Dezeen, Sept. 7, 2021.


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  • Hanane El Hayek, James Fisher, Dipaneeta Das, Jorge Chapa, Jamie Wallis, Benjamin Towell, Chris Pyke, and Sarah Zalesk, “Financing transformation: A guide to green building for green bonds and green loans,” Alliance HQE-GBC, Building Research Establishment, Green Building Council Australia, Singapore Green Building Council, and US Green Building Council, June 2024.


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  • Patrice Cochelin and Bryan Popoola, “Sustainable bond issuance to approach $1 trillion in 2024,” S&P Global Ratings, Feb. 13, 2024.


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  • Tim Archer, “Understanding the compliance and voluntary carbon trading markets,” Deloitte United Kingdom, July 4, 2023.


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  • Ricardo Martinez, Val Srinivas, and Jill Gregorie, “The world needs carbon markets. Here’s how to make them work better,” Deloitte Insights, Sept. 22, 2023.


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  • Jamie Baker and Tim Coy, “The US real estate industry workforce faces a retirement cliff,” Deloitte Insights, May 29, 2024.


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  • Jim Berry and John D’Angelo, “Preparing for the future of commercial real estate,” Deloitte Insights, Sept. 15, 2020.


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  • Ibid.


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  • Deloitte, 2024 Gen Z and Millennial Survey: Living and working with purpose in a transforming world, May 15, 2024.


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  • Patrick Sisson, “‘There’s a cost’: CRE’s mental health struggles hit early career workers hard,” Bisnow Media, April 9, 2023.


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  • Deloitte, 2024 Gen Z and Millennial Survey, May 15, 2024.


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  • Deloitte, “Building a workforce development ecosystem that works,” February 2023.


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  • Miriam Hall, “A seismic generational shift is afoot among New York’s real estate stalwarts,” Bisnow Media, Nov. 12, 2023.


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  • Sue Cantrell, Robin Jones, Michael Griffiths, and Julie Hiipakka, “The skills-based organization: A new operating model for work and the workforce,” Deloitte Insights, Sept. 8, 2022.


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  • Aisha Kapoor, “AI will give you your time back,” PERE, May 7, 2024.


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  • Ibid.


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  • Nick Pipitone, “Can Cushman & Wakefield’s AI push close the gap with CBRE and JLL?,” Propmodo, Feb. 19, 2024.


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  • Hannah Miet, “Artificial intelligence’s ‘bad data’ problem for real estate investment,” Urban Land Magazine, May 9, 2024.


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  • Trinadha Kandi, Sai Medi, Jenny Kelly, and David Chan, “Is your customer data AI-ready?,” Deloitte Digital, Feb. 2, 2024.


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  • Kelsey Miller, “Five critical steps in the change management process,” Harvard Business School Online, March 19, 2020.


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  • Deloitte, “Strategic change management services,” accessed Sept. 11, 2024.


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